The Chess Master Strikes Again

by Michael Bedard

Less than a week after the blockbuster trade of Vernon Wells, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos (whom I'm now dubbing "the chess master") was at it again. This time he flipped newly acquired Catcher/1st Basement/DH Mike Napoli to the Texas Rangers for relief pitcher Frank Francisco (6-4, 3.76 ERA, 2 saves in 56 relief appearances) and cash. This trade, though surprising, was not completely unexpected. A chess master is always looking a few moves ahead, something Anthopoulos proved yet again to be one of his strongpoints in his news conference this week after the Francisco trade. Knowing that there had been a number of clubs contacting the Angels about Napoli's availability before the Jays acquired him, Anthopoulos made the trade for Napoli with the possibility of another one never far from his mind.

Anthopoulos has made it his mission to protect his young starting rotation from physical burnout and emotional frustration. Last year, the Jays implemented two strategies to physically protect their starters. The first was a ceiling on pitchcount (a starter generally threw no more than 100-110 pitches a game). The second, was limiting the number of innings they would pitch for the season (that's why they shut down Brandon Morrow last September, he reached a pre-determined number of innings for the season).

This year, Anthopoulos has made moves to alleviate the stress of blown save opportunities: he's rebuilt his bull pen. First, he let closer Kevin Gregg and left hand specialist Scott Downs go as free agents to collect draft picks and save money (The Blue Jays now have 8 of the first 80 picks in this year’s entry draft). Next, he's traded for and signed a slew of veteran relievers with closing experience: Octavio Dotel (37, 3-4, 4.08 ERA, 22/28 saves, 75 Ks in 64 innings), Jon Rouch (32, 3-1 3.12 ERA, 21/25 saves, 46 Ks in 57 innings), as well as Francisco. Though none of them are “the closer” all true post-season contenders must have, they do give 1st year manager John Farrell some depth to play with in the pen.

Rouch and Francisco are especially interesting acquisitions. Last year Rouch started as the Minnesota Twins' closer after their premier closer Joe Nathan had season-ending elbow surgery. Rouch did pretty well and that experience should add to his effectiveness this year. Francisco is even more interesting. He was “the closer” for Texas in 2009 and posted 25 saves in 29 opportunities. Though he lost his closer position in 2010 to AL Rookie of the Year Alex Feliz, he is a proven major league closer. An added bonus is Francisco’s effectiveness against left handed batters. Last year, lefties only batted .205 against him and over the course of his career he has held them to a very respectable .215 average. This will complement and relieve some of the load on the Jays left handed specialist David Purcey.

Anthopoulos has also acquired a number of other proven middle inning relievers such as Carlos Villanuva (who had 67 K’s in 52 innings last year). There are holdovers from last year’s team; Casey Janssen, Shawn Camp, Jason Frasor, Josh Roenicke, and Jesse Carlson, as well, as lefty Jo Jo Reyes, (acquired in the Escarbar trade) and Chad Cordero (who is returning from shoulder surgery but posted 47 saves in 2005 with the Washington Nationals).

Though that most sought-after commodity “the closer” remains elusive, the chess master has strengthened and added depth to the Blue Jays bullpen,  something that will definitely serve the team well over the marathon 162-game season. The Francisco trade is just one more example of Anthopulos thinking ahead to fill a void and protect his most-prized asset, his young and talented starting pitching.

Looking ahead, I have to think that Anthopoulos is going to address the third base position next; I think he'd prefer to keep Jose Bautista in right field. Stay tuned, there is surely more to come from The Chess Master.

Thoughts on the Vernon Wells Trade

by Michael Bedard

Alex Anthopoulos did what many people considered impossible, he traded Vernon Wells. The centre fielder is very talented but very expensive ($86 million over the next 4 years), aging (32) but still productive (.273, 31 HR, 88 RBI in 2010) and a three-time All Star. Wells went to the Angels in exchange for 29-year-old Catcher/1st Baseman/DH Mike Napoli (.238, 26 HR, 68 RBI in 2010) and 32-year-old Outfielder Juan Rivera ( .252, 15 Hr, 52 RBI in 2010).

To be sure, this is a salary dump. Napoli and Rivera together will cost the Jays approximately $11 million this year versus $23 million for Wells. After that, Napoli will have one more season of arbitration eligibility which will result in a salary range of $6 to 8 million; Rivera will be a free agent and off the books. This results in a total salary savings of about $68 million over the course of Wells' contract.

Anthopoulos, in his post trade interviews, admitted that financial considerations where a major factor in making this trade. What this means is that he has more financial flexibility to sign two of his young pitchers, Brandon Morrow and Brent Cecil to long term contracts. If we use the contract negotiated with Ricky Romero last summer as a template ($30.1 million over the next 5 years) then theoretically he could sign both these promising pitchers for the amount saved by trading Wells. Smart?? It is if you're an accountant for Rogers Communications (who own the Jays). But, in my opinion, it's not so smart if you're trying to build a team to compete in 3-5 years, the very thing Antropoulos has been touting as his principal goal since he was named General Manager little over a year ago.

Napoli and Rivera are solid, but neither are All-Star-quality position players. They do give the Jays' manager John Farrell more lineup flexibility and depth, which is important... if you're trying to be a contender THIS year. But that's not Anthopoulos’ supposed goal; if it was, he wouldn't have traded Shaun Marcum for a prospect who's at least 1-2 years away from making the team. Anthopoulos compromised himself with this trade to meet budget constraints. In doing so, he's weakened his team this year AND lost an opportunity to continually build the Jays for the future.

Let me explain. First of all, the Jays are weaker this year without Wells in centre field and the middle of the lineup. Second, by trading him for 2 established-but-not-extraordinary major leaguers rather than for 1 of the Angels' top prospects, he lost an opportunity to strengthen his club in the long-term. Anthopoulos has stated that his goal is to build his team for the future, so that he has a potential All Star at each position. This trade does not accomplish that.

If it is true (and I suspect it is since Anthopoulos has been very honest in his interviews in the past) that the Angels and other teams pursued Wells “aggressively”, then it makes sense that the Angels, or another team, would have been willing to give up 1 of their top prospects to acquire him. This would have weakened the Blue Jays this year for sure, but it would have resulted in increased salary savings and a bigger upside in the future.

Alex Anthopoulos has built up a lot of goodwill with the Blue Jays fan base in the short time that he's been GM. He's made a lot of shrewd deals and, to his credit, seems to approach many of his trades and signings like a chess master thinking 3 or 4 moves ahead.

Unfortunately, I don’t see that potential with this trade. It's difficult to believe that any team, near the trade deadline, would be willing to give up a top minor league prospect for either Napoli or Rivera. However, let's cut the guy some slack, it's possible that Anthopoulos is considering his willingness to trade top catching prospect, J.P. Arencibia (who is major league ready) for a top-line minor league prospect who's 2-3 years away from the big leagues. He did this last year when he sent Brett Wallace to Houston in exchange for Anthony Gose, who's still 1-2 years away from being major league material. I've always suspected Anthopolos wasn't convinced Arencibia would be the Blues Jays' future catcher. The Jays are strong in the minors with catching prospects Travis d’Arnaud (double A) and Carlos Perez (high single A). Naploi gives him the flexibility to make this type of trade.

Anthopoulos has earned my respect so far, and you can never truly predict how any trade will work out.  But, until proven otherwise, I'm convinced this trade, was made solely to strengthen the organization's financial bottom line, rather than strengthening the actual team now or in the future.

Alex, prove me wrong!

Alomar Gets the Call

90% of voters in the Baseball Writers Association of America wanted Roberto Alomar in the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2011. Every Toronto Blue Jays fan there ever was agrees. And on July 24th of this year, we'll be getting our wish.

In 17 years in the major leagues, Alomar was a 12x All Star and won 10 Golden Gloves, the record at second base (he's in second place for most second base Silver Sluggers with 4). In his 5 years with Toronto he won 2 World Series, maintained a batting average of .308, stole 206 bases and earned 447 runs.

Though he also played for the Padres, the Orioles, the Indians, the Mets, the White Sox and the Diamondbacks, Alomar considers himself a Toronto Blue Jay and that's the uniform he hopes to wear in the Hall of Fame. If that happens, he'll be the first Jay to make it there.